The power battery industry chain is facing profound changes, and the market polarization is obvious.
on July 4, the national development and Reform Commission issued the regulations on investment management in the automotive industry (Draft for comments) (hereinafter referred to as the draft for comments), which proposed to optimize the production capacity layout of traditional fuel vehicles, scientifically plan the layout of the new energy vehicle industry, strictly manage the investment projects of new pure electric vehicle enterprises, and prevent blind distribution and low-level repeated construction. Support social capital and enterprises with strong technical ability to drive and stabilize to invest in new energy vehicles, intelligent vehicles, energy-saving vehicles and key parts, as well as power battery recycling and other fields. "The great development potential of the power battery industry, coupled with policy support, has attracted many enterprises and capital." Automotive industry analysts told
as the "heart" of new energy vehicles, the power battery industry chain is facing profound changes. From the current situation, the head effect of the industry is prominent, and the market share of the top five power battery enterprises with installed capacity has increased from 61% in 2017 to 71%. With the progress of technology, the cost of ternary battery is gradually reduced and the safety is gradually improved, which will have an impact on lithium iron phosphate battery. Industry insiders pointed out that lithium iron phosphate batteries have shortcomings in energy density, but they have cost advantages and higher safety. With the withdrawal of subsidies, its price advantage will appear
head effect highlights
Waterma, a subsidiary of Jianrui voneng, recently announced that due to insufficient orders and financial difficulties, all employees have a six-month holiday. Only half a year ago, the company ranked third in the top 20 enterprises in 2017. The top two were Ningde times and BYD
Yang Ming (a pseudonym) entered Waterma in 2011 and is currently going through the resignation procedures. Over the past seven years, Yang Ming has experienced the development process of the power battery industry from Crazy expansion to rapid differentiation
"since 2014, policies to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry have been promulgated one after another. But at that time, I didn't dare to let go, because I couldn't see it. By 2015, real gold and silver subsidies began to increase, orders poured in, and the new energy vehicle industry broke out in an all-round way." Yang Ming told the China Securities Journal
data show that since 2014, the production and sales scale of power batteries has expanded rapidly. From 2014 to 2016, the growth rate of power battery industry was 368%, 324% and 78.6% respectively
Yang Ming told that in 2016, power battery enterprises began to expand production capacity on a large scale, including new enterprises and enterprises from business transformation. The overall production capacity of the industry exceeded 120billion wh, an increase of 80billion wh compared with 2015. Lithium battery equipment industry is also investing heavily
in 2017, under the background of rapid growth of production capacity, the problem of low capacity utilization began to highlight. IEA data shows that in 2017, the lithium battery capacity of major domestic enterprises was about 124gwh, and it is expected to reach 180gwh by the end of 2018. The capacity of major enterprises basically exceeded 8gwh, but the utilization rate was generally lower than 40%
chenqingtai, chairman of the China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, pointed out that the current market is obviously polarized, with insufficient supply of high-end high-quality capacity, insufficient ordering of low-end capacity, and difficult production and operation, showing structural overcapacity. Small and low-level power battery enterprises will be eliminated in the competition, and the industry will accelerate the reshuffle. The number of battery supporting enterprises has decreased from about 150 in 2015 to about 100 in 2017, and one third of them have been eliminated
"from the current situation, it is estimated that there are only more than 70." Xiaojianping, a partner of chentao capital, told China Securities News, "at the peak of the industry, many 3C battery companies transformed to power batteries, but now many companies have withdrawn."
"at present, the head effect of the industry is obvious. The market share of the top five power battery enterprises with installed capacity has increased from 61% last year to 71% Huang Shilin, vice chairman of Ningde times, told, "the combined market share of Ningde times and BYD increased from 44% in 2017 to 63% in the first half of 2018. It is estimated that there is little difference between the second half and the first half. The company has tight production and increasing demand."
dispute over technical route
in February 2018, the notice on adjusting and improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles was issued. The new deal stipulates that electric vehicles with a driving range of less than 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies. At the same time, the subsidy is further inclined to the battery technology route with high energy density and long endurance mileage
"From the perspective of market demand, passenger cars will be the main direction of the growth of the new energy vehicle industry. The high energy density characteristics of ternary batteries can better meet the needs of new energy passenger vehicles. At the same time, the policy is also guiding the industry to develop the battery technology route with high energy density and long endurance mileage. Therefore, ternary batteries have become the focus of the development of power battery technology. With technological progress, the cost of ternary batteries has been gradually reduced and the safety has been gradually improved , its squeeze on lithium iron phosphate batteries will intensify. " Liu Yanlong, Secretary General of China chemical and physical power industry association, told China Securities Journal
besides Waterma, BYD also adopts lithium iron phosphate battery technology. In the first quarter of 2018, the company's performance shrank significantly
the first quarter report showed that BYD achieved an operating revenue of 23.738 billion yuan, an increase of 17.54% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was only 102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.09%. The company expects to make a profit of 300-500 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 71%-83%. BYD said that the new deal adjustment of new energy vehicle subsidies had a huge impact on the company's sales in the first quarter
"we will not give up the technical route of lithium iron phosphate." Zhang Chunyu, director of the second business unit of BYD battery business group, told China Securities News that subsidies will be withdrawn in 2020, and consumers will be more sensitive to the price of new energy vehicles. The lithium iron phosphate battery has advantages in price and safety, and the A00 car may return to the lithium iron phosphate technology route in the future
at present, many automobile manufacturers have not completely switched the battery technology to the ternary battery route. Take Jianghuai Automobile as an example. Ieva50 is the first pure electric vehicle launched by Jianghuai Automobile this year, providing lithium iron phosphate and ternary battery packs. The endurance mileage of lithium iron phosphate battery is 310 kilometers, while the endurance mileage of ternary battery can reach 400 kilometers. In terms of price, the subsidized price of vehicles equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries is 122500 yuan/vehicle, while the subsidized price of vehicles equipped with ternary batteries is 144500 yuan/vehicle. "We are still observing the market reaction and consumers' preferences. After all, lithium iron phosphate batteries are safer." Feng liangsen, the Board Secretary of JAC, told the China Securities Journal
in addition, "lithium iron phosphate batteries also have advantages in heavy metals and rare metals." Analysts said, "after the subsidy is withdrawn, the cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery will appear."
Liu Yanlong pointed out that energy density is the short board of lithium iron phosphate battery. By improving the material performance, the specific energy of lithium iron phosphate battery is limited. The more direct way is to enlarge the battery size, increase the battery capacity, and improve the energy of the battery system through physical means
strive for high-quality targets
"the power battery industry has great development potential, coupled with policy support, attracting many enterprises and capital." Auto industry analysts told China Securities Journal
according to incomplete statistics, investment in the power battery industry was booming in 2017, with up to 100 related investment projects, with a total investment of more than 215.9 billion yuan. Many enterprises have increased their layout through mergers and acquisitions, involving materials, production and equipment, and recycling
a PE person admitted that the overall investment enthusiasm has cooled this year, but some head power battery enterprises are still in demand. "I just invested in a project recently. I didn't dare to invest in the valuation of 6billion yuan last year, but we fought hard for the valuation of 10billion yuan this year."
the Institute of lithium battery research (GGII) believes that capital intends to take a share in the new energy vehicle industry, and the high-quality target of lithium battery has become the target of capital competition
some analysts from securities companies said that the power battery industry needs huge financial support in the early stage of investment and the later stage of production. For example, investment in 1GWh capacity requires about 600million yuan. There is a great risk for small enterprises to expand their scale blindly. "Leading enterprises have more competitive advantages. Enterprises with strong technology accumulation and sufficient capital support are more able to respond quickly to the market. Enterprises need to capture opportunities, bind strategic resources, especially control upstream resources."
Zhang Yongwei, secretary general and chief expert of China electric vehicle hundred people's Association, pointed out that the power battery currently has the problem of virtual production capacity. A large amount of investment has accumulated around solidified technology and low-end fields. "It is easy to manufacture, but it has no actual competitiveness. These production capacities will become obstacles to industrial innovation."
Ningde times power battery "unicorn"
Ningde times' main products include power battery system, energy storage system and lithium battery materials
since 2015, the sales volume of Ningde times power battery system has ranked the top three in the world for three consecutive years, and ranked the first in the world in 2017
from 2015 to 2017, the operating revenue of Ningde times was 5.703 billion yuan, 14.879 billion yuan and 19.997 billion yuan respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 87.26%; The net profit was 951 million yuan, 3.089 billion yuan and 4.288 billion yuan respectively, with an average annual compound growth rate of 112.39%
the cost of the company has decreased year after year, from 1.33 yuan/wh in 2015 to 0.91 yuan/wh in 2017, with a cumulative decrease of 31.78%
according to the statistics of new energy vehicle industry chain data released by GGII, in October 2017, Ningde times ranked first with 21577 battery installations in the top ten list of the total installed electricity of new energy vehicle power batteries. The total installed capacity of BYD in the second place is 9581
Shanshan lithium battery materials integrated supplier
Shanshan has a business scope of lithium cobalt oxide, ternary positive electrode, negative electrode materials, electrolyte and new energy vehicle operations
in 2017, the company's operating revenue of lithium battery materials totaled 6.036 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.37%, and the net profit attributable to listed companies was 565 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 101.31%, becoming the main source of the company's revenue and profit
Western Securities believes that from the perspective of cathode business, the company participates in Luoyang molybdenum industry, grasps upstream resources, and improves industrial competitiveness. In terms of cathode material business, the company laid out graphite integrated processes in Baotou, reducing the proportion of outsourced processing of key processes and strengthening cost control. In terms of electrolyte business, lithium salt capacity expansion will be completed, helping the business turn losses into profits. The integration trend of lithium battery sector is obvious, which makes up for the downstream price reduction risk to a certain extent. The net profit of lithium battery materials is expected to be 743 million yuan in 2018. Among them, the net profits of positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte are 5 respectively. After plastic recycling, it can be used for bumper reconstruction... "This year, it can supply about 2500 tons of scrap steel to steel mills every month, 89 million yuan, 149 million yuan and 05 million yuan.
leading intelligence benefits from the expansion of lithium battery production.
in recent years, leading intelligence has increased the research and development and manufacturing of intelligent equipment, and has cooperated with IBM to develop" leading cloud "and big data center, and established a collaborative platform for the full value chain
in 2017, the company acquired 100% equity of Titan new power. Titan new power, as a key equipment supplier, whose customers include many large and medium-sized well-known lithium battery manufacturers, will have a good development prospect in 2018 because of the market range created by recovering cobalt, nickel, manganese, lithium, iron, aluminum and other metals from waste power lithium batteries after the production of lithium batteries
the company is deeply bound with Ningde times, which is Ningde
Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI