The hottest power battery duopoly era is coming

The era of power battery duopoly is coming

the economic operation of the automotive industry in November 2018 released by the China Automobile Association on December 11 shows that from January to November 2018, a total of 1.054 million and 1.03 million new energy vehicles were produced and sold, an increase of 63.6% and 68% year-on-year

with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market at home and abroad, the market demand of the power battery industry will also continue to grow in the next few years

although the market prospect is broad, the concentration of the power battery industry has increased. Ningde times and BYD, the top two oligarchs in China, have occupied more than 60% of the market share, and small power battery enterprises have difficulties in survival

according to the analysis of industry experts, with the intensification of market competition and the acceleration of industrial chain integration, it is expected that by 2020, there will be only 20 or 30 power battery enterprises left. At this stage, more than 0% of the enterprises taking the development path of "Introduction digestion absorption innovation" are facing elimination. This trend will be more obvious in 2019

Ningde times is the king

from January to November 2018, China's new energy vehicle power battery installed capacity was 43.53gwh, and Ningde times and BYD together accounted for 63% of the market share. Among them, the market share of Ningde era is 41%, and BYD gets a small part, with a market share of about 22%

on the whole, in 2017, Ningde times seized market share through price reduction, and the average price of power battery system was only 1.41 yuan/wh, a year-on-year decrease of about 30%. The annual shipment of power batteries reached 9.7gwh, accounting for 27% of the market, ranking first in the industry. In 2018, Ningde era continued to maintain strong growth. In the first three quarters of 2018, Ningde times achieved an operating revenue of 19.136 billion yuan, an increase of about 59.85% year-on-year; The net profit after non deduction was 1.985 billion yuan, an increase of 88.71% year-on-year. Both sales volume and profit margin have increased, indicating that as a leading enterprise, its industry voice is strengthening

the partners of Ningde era are also increasing. On December 20, 2018, Geely Automobile (Hong Kong stock 00175) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary would sign an agreement with Ningde times to jointly establish a joint venture, and the two sides would invest 10 billion to expand the power battery capacity. Up to now, Ningde times has reached partnerships with vehicle manufacturers such as SAIC, BAIC, Geely, Fuzhou automobile, CRRC, Dongfeng, Chang'an, Yutong, BMW, Jaguar Land Rover and Volkswagen. In particular, on May 2, 2018, Daimler, a veteran auto giant, announced that the group had signed a battery supply contract with Ningde times, which officially entered Daimler's battery supply chain system

as electric vehicles are undergoing the transition from the introduction period to the growth period, the demand for power batteries is expanding, especially the increase of large customers. Ningde era is accelerating the implementation of production capacity. Among them, it is planned to invest in the construction of Jiangsu times power and energy storage lithium battery R & D and production project (phase III) through Jiangsu times, and plan to build power and energy storage lithium battery production lines; It is planned to build a power battery project in Guangzhou through the holding subsidiary time GAC, with a construction period of 24 months

BYD opens battery supply

the main route taken by Ningde era to make the upper and lower jaws out of alignment is ternary 1. The door structure is a novel pool route, while BYD mainly promotes the lithium iron phosphate battery route. Although lithium iron phosphate or ternary battery is better, there has been no final conclusion. However, as China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy and subsidy amount are gradually directly linked to the energy density of the battery system, in recent years, major vehicle manufacturers have also moved closer to ternary lithium batteries, including Weilai automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weima automobile, chehejia, etc., which are among the new forces of vehicle building with strong momentum at present, all choose ternary lithium batteries. In this case, BYD has also made strategic adjustments and shifted its business to ternary batteries

in fact, since the second half of 2017, many new plug-in hybrid models under BYD, such as Qin 100 and song DM, have been equipped with ternary lithium batteries. In addition, BYD is also expanding the production capacity of 24gwh ternary battery in Qinghai, which is the world's largest and most intelligent ecological power battery factory. It is expected to reach full production by the end of 2019. BYD's total power battery capacity will reach 60gwh by 2020, once again reaching the peak of the market

BYD told the times weekly that since the implementation of marketization in 2017, BYD has opened the door to external supply, and all possible partners will negotiate. At present, it is in the process of negotiation with many domestic and foreign auto brands, and there will be a series of cooperation plans in the future. BYD hopes to accelerate the popularization of electric vehicles with global partners by opening batteries

small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated

Yin Chengliang, vice president of the Automotive Engineering Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, told the times weekly that formula (7) can also be simplified as: China's power battery industry, 2015 is a watershed. Whether it is capacity reserves or market shipments, all major battery manufacturers ushered in collective explosive growth this year. However, the power battery industry has shown structural overcapacity. Structural overcapacity means that the high-quality production capacity of head enterprises is still in short supply, but the low-quality production capacity of small and medium-sized players and backward enterprises will be difficult to be digested by the market, and the living space will continue to be squeezed

according to the data of Industrial Research Institute (GGII), the number of power battery enterprises in China reached 155 two years ago, but by 2018, this number had dropped to 105. Moreover, the performance report for the first three quarters of 2018 shows that many battery enterprises with small market share are in development difficulties, and small and medium-sized battery enterprises have suffered substantial losses. Among them, the net profit of Chengfei integration was -99.6172 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1214.46%; The net profit of Rongjie shares attributable to shareholders of listed companies was -6.86 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 502.32%

it is understood that the reasons for the decline in profits of battery enterprises are mainly the sharp decline in subsidies and the intensification of market competition. On the one hand, in order to absorb the downward pressure of subsidies, new energy vehicle enterprises require upstream supporting enterprises to share costs, and the price of power batteries has fallen sharply; On the other hand, the prices of raw materials such as upstream materials rose, remained high, and the production costs of enterprises rose sharply. Under the pressure from up to down, battery enterprises are in a difficult situation

some industry experts believe that with the intensification of market competition and the acceleration of industrial chain integration, it is expected that by 2020, there will be only 20-30 power battery enterprises left, and more than 80% of them will be eliminated